Giere Memorial Lecture in Philosophy of Science with Dr. Roman Frigg

Cyclones, Forecasts, and Uncertainty: How Model-Ensembles Can Be an Effective Guide to Anticipatory Action

Many important decisions are based on models offering detailed representations of physical systems. However, these models are often subject to uncertainty, which is reflected in the use of model ensembles in decision-making processes. We present a version of the confidence approach that uses model ensembles as input and show how this approach can be employed to build a confidence-sensitive decision support tool for anticipatory humanitarian action. We apply the tool to Cyclone Kenneth, which made landfall in Mozambique in April 2019. Comparing the level and timing of the alerts actually triggered with those recommended by the tool shows that a decision-maker would have acted earlier had they used the tool, considerably reducing the cyclone's impact.

Roman Frigg: Professor of Philosophy and Head of Department, London School of Economics Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method.

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The Ronald Giere memorial lecture in philosophy of science is made possible by an estate gift from former MCPS director Ronald Giere, who passed away in 2020.