2026 IMA Public Lecture: Hearing the will of the people in the vote
Discover how mathematics shapes public policy
Join us for the 2026 IMA Public Lecture — a story of mathematics, public policy, and effective communication. Professor Johnathan Mattingly of Duke University will present “Hearing the will of the people in the vote,” a story of more than a decade’s worth of collaborative applied mathematics research to develop mathematical tools and ideas to quantify political and racial gerrymandering.
Abstract
The US political system is built on representatives chosen by geographically localized regions. This presents the government with the problem of designing these districts. Every ten years, the US census counts the population, and new political districts must be drawn. The practice of harnessing this administrative process for partisan political gain is often referred to as gerrymandering.
How does one identify and understand gerrymandering? Can we really recognize gerrymandering when we see it? If one party wins over 50% of the vote, is it fair that it wins less than 50% of the seats? What do we mean by fair? Should we expect proportional representation? How can math help illuminate these questions? How does the geopolitical geometry of the state (where which groups live and the shape of the state) inform these answers?
Our ability to answer these questions is still a work in progress and presents many interesting mathematical research questions. Topics include ideas from computation, statistics/statistical physics, combinatorics, high-dimensional probability, Markov Chain theory, and modern data science.
The story thus far has been an interaction between lawyers, mathematicians, computational scientists, and policy advocates. The legal discussion has been increasingly informed by the mathematical framework. And the mathematics has been pushed to be better included in the policy considerations. This back and forth has been important to finding ways to effectively inform the policymakers and courts. The problem of understanding gerrymandering has also prompted the development of a number of new computational algorithms that come with new mathematical questions.
The next round of redistricting analysis will necessarily need to be more refined and nuanced. There is also the opportunity to be less reactive. There are opportunities to try to influence the process by which new maps are drawn before turning to the courts. There is also the possibility to direct the conversation by showing the effect more fully, considering factors such as communities of interest, incumbency, or proposed procedural elements of laws.
For me, these questions began with an undergraduate research program project in 2013 and have led me to testify in a number of cases: Common Cause v. Rucho (that went to the US Supreme Court), Common Cause v. Lewis, Harper v. Lewis, and Harper v. Hall/Moore, to name a few.
This presentation reflects joint work with Gregory Herschlag and a number of other researchers, including many undergraduates, graduate students, and a few high school students.
Jonathan Mattingly
A mathematician and computational scientist who grew up in Charlotte, NC, Jonathan Mattingly studies the long-time behavior of random dynamical systems and computational algorithms. He is particularly interested in Bayesian Sampling Methods, modeling biological systems, and statistical theories of turbulent fluids. He has been a member of the NC School of Science and Math, Yale University, the École Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Princeton University, Stanford University, and is currently the Kimberly J. Jenkins Distinguished University Professor of New Technologies at Duke University. Over the course of his career, Mattingly has received an NSF CAREER award, a Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), and a Sloan Foundation Faculty Fellowship. He is a fellow of the Institute for Mathematical Statistics (IMS), the American Mathematics Society (AMS), Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. His mother grew up by Cedar Lake, and he spends holidays in the Twin Cities.
“Hearing the will of the people in the vote” is an Arnold Family Lecture hosted by the University of Minnesota School of Mathematics.
